Are We on the Cusp of a New Food Shortage?
Is everything A-OK with farming
Sounds Like Heat Lightning
Are we on the cusp of famine? One of the things lost in the sound and fury of the curent economic meltdown is the price of food that last skyrocketed in 2008. Turns out at the time most of that was due to the effects of ethanol production but it should have sounded a warning to the world at large.
Fast forward to today and certain facts jump out at you:
- Soybean, corn and wheat prices are all on the rise.
- Inventories of soybeans have fallen to dangerous lows.
- Chinese consumption of grains increasing as they add more meat to their diet
- Argentina grain crops failed. Argentina is the world's third largest exporter of grain.
- Credit Crisis: Lack of credit in Brazil and the Ukraine hampers farmers there.
The International Grain Coucil expects that prodiction will not meet demand this year, which is troubling as stocks of these grains are at all time lows. In order to sustain stocks we need bumper crops this year, which we may not get.
Surely the Midwest Will Save Us All
Perhaps, then again perhaps not. Consider the fact that the Midwest of the US has, overall, seen great weather for the cultivation of grain for the last 18 years. If it lasts until 2011, that will be the longest stretch of great growing weather the Midwest has seen in 800 years. It would be foolish to expect our luck to continue in that regard.
So we may not be able to expect bumper crops over the next few years. That could be bad. We need those bumper crops just to say ahead of the curve. What happens when we have a spell of bad weather, or heaven forbid, crop failures?
Brave New World?
The 2008 run up in prices was bad enough to show the underlying weakness in our economy. The average Amercian, already teetering under a mountain of debt, We still haven't written all of that down. What will happen when more pressure is put on American pocketbooks by another spike in food prices? Could we really see famine in the United States?
The credit situation may affect farmers here in the States as well. With banks hoarding funds against the coming reset of Alt-A and Prime ARM mortgages, will there be anything left over for farmers to be able to afford seeds, fertilizer and water for next year's planting? Will we see something like the nationalization of Monsanto? Only time will tell.
What Can We Do?
I hate to write such a depressing article and not leave you with some action items in case this turns out not to be paranoia on my part. In that vein, let me remind you that we once faced a shortage of all sorts of goods and services during the Second World War. People planted gardens in their homes, parks and even on the rooftops in cities. There is no reason that we could not do the same today.
Here where I live, there are community gardens that people can plant, tend and harvest. It might be a good time to take up a new hobby, you never know when it might come in handy.
Comments
Yeah, it's better to be safe than sorry, but it's sad that we've come to this. I've recently heard about the ug99 fungus that could wipe out wheat producing areas in Africa, Europe, India, Russia and China. It could even cross into the US. If that happens, well bread might become scarce.
Ledenfensetech, didn't you mean that consumption of grains by the Chinese is decreasing as they add more meat to their diet? (Rather than increasing.)
I am raising my own hens and have fruit trees, as a way of dealing with food shortages. However, I think we should eat less grain, anyway, so you won't find me growing wheat or corn.
No because what do you use to feed cattle? Grains. Cattle need way more grain than people and it takes a lot, and I mean a lot, of grain to feed cattle.
I'd rather eat cattle that graze on grass.
It takes much more land to do that, when you're talking about feeding a billion people, you don't have the luxury of grass fed beef. It's grain fed or nothing.
Ledefensetech, yes, I know it takes more land to do it. We need to reduce our population... We don't have the luxury of waiting until we run out of land.
And how would you suggest we reduce our population? It's a moot point. If you look at the demographics, industrial nations are shrinking in population. That seems to be a long term trend. It just costs too much to raise multiple kids in industrial or post-industrial nations. The place we're really having problems is places in the Third World who rely on subsistence farming. That sort of farming is hard work and absent machines, you need a lot of hands to do the work. If we really want to get a handle on the population, we need to encourage those countries to use machines. That, however, has a problem associated with it. In order to use machines, you need an educated workforce. But with an educated workforce, you'll have not only smarter farmers, but smarter people who can start and run factories and really industrialize. Then you'll see pressure for smaller and smaller families. Given enought time we can avoid plague, wars and famine, which historically have been the ways population has been kept down.
Ledenfensetech, it all sounds good. But why is it that land ownership per capita seems to go down in industrialized countries?
As a people industrializes, land becomes more than something you grow food on or live on as you do in agrarian societies. Land becomes capital. You can use it to grow food or provide shelter as before, but now you can also use it for factories. As people's standard of living goes up, they have more leisure time than a subsistence farmer does, so new venues for entertainment go up. In short land is no longer the premier indicator of wealth, thus the number of people who own land decreases.
I think that's a shame becasue I believe land ownership is vital to keeping your freedom. Every family should keep and maintain a homestead, just in case. In fact, as soon as I can get my business off the ground, that's my first priority, the establishment of a homestead.
Ledefensetech, I agree. Land ownership is vital to keeping your freedom.
Interesting hub.....we will be in a massive mess if we have a serious drought in the midwest. Our major cities are fed by the day. I have noticed grocery prices creeping up in the past year. Corporate farming will do no better than small farms if nature takes a break.
Your hub is very insightful and like a dim warning light in a possible dark future. Thanks.
Glad to be of service. The recent spike in prices is not, however, due to food supply problems, it's due to inflation of the monetary supply. The funny thing is that the only thing keeping food and other sundries affordable is the increasing unemployment in this country. As soon as the jobs picture starts to improve, we'll start to see inflation, or God forbid, hyperinflation.
Hey, ledefensetech:
Great article on food. I note you stayed away from too many quotations and controversial political issues. It seems those are two of the things that drive down the grading that the head honchos of Hub pages hate the most -- the reason so many of my Hubs are lowball graded. You've figured it out and have done a very good job. Keep up the good work.
Don White, dusanotes
Great logic at work...Cal. Dust Bowl is further proof you are not paranoid :)
I used my side planter for squash & cucumbers this year. Great advice & Hub!
Thanks, Don, it can be hard to stay away from overly emotional topics and keep to the bare facts. I'm gratified that you think I've done a good job in that area.
Thank you, Envoy. It's still up for debate if we are in for famine, I think. It would seem that we are in the midst of climate change, although the exact mechanism is under debate. What I don't see are any proposals to mitigate said effects. Which bothers me. I don't think most of the "Green" crowd understand that for every place that experiences desertification or dust bowl conditions, there are other areas which are becoming more suitable for agriculture. We should be anticipating those changes and getting things in place, should our worst case scenarios prove true. It's this lack of planning that will do us in, at the end I think. I've started doing research on greenhouse technology, just in case.
Yet that would be a rational way of dealing with the challenges we're faced with today, instead of the "easy" way which may not even reflect reality. I have to admit that I'm curious to see how the sunspot minimum is going to affect all of our predictions, which will be starting about 2012.
The city of Chicago has a "Green Roof" program in place with many benefits to property owners. It's a program that calls for planting gardens and greenery on the unused rooftops throughout the city. Many people have taken advantage of the program and are planting vegetable gardens and other green space.
It's easy to fear food shortages when you live in a congested area, but the US as a whole is very uncongested and unused. I would guess that if such a time came, you would see migration out westward in mass. Remember those ads you see that offer land in Colorado for a couple hundred dollars for an acre? Maybe it would be a good investment.
I've noticed increased growth of a tree that happens to be near a street light.I thought if green houses had lighting at night that the produce they grow might grow faster this way.
Richard, I'm all for making things "greener" if you can justify the cost. Some of the newest skyscrapers in our cities use a lot of green tech, and have realized massive amounts of savings. I'm all for that. But when you begin forcing people to do those sorts of changes regardless of the cost, well that's when you run into trouble. Also, farming is more complex than most people realize. It's one thing to keep a garden going, it's another thing entirely to mass produce food. And let's face it, we have to mass produce food anymore to feed the population of the planet. Also keep in mind that climate is shifting and you really can't be sure how that's going to affect the fertility of areas. Heck we might even see the Southwest become suitable for farming. Of course the question then becomes, how will that affect other crop growing areas in the US?
Personally I'm looking at Wyoming to set up a homestead. You really can't consider yourself free unless you have a place to call your own.
Someone, I'm sure there is a lot that goes into greenhouse gardening. There's a place around here that does it year round for produce, but the costs are higher than what you'd find in the grocery store. Still, there may be a way to scale up production or some other method to better control costs. It's definitely worth looking into.
Oops. I posted the wrong link, here is the one I meant to post: http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?maven_r//www.foxnews.com/glennbeck/index.html
If true, it's pretty disturbing. It's not enough that they're wrecking the economy, now they have to wreck food production too. This is going to be the Ukraine in 1920 all over again, except it's going to be in the US.
Great hub .I believe something is going on because the expiration dates on foods is lasting less than a week.Food in doors running out.Keep alert on this issue.I am.Thank U 4 responding 2 my question .>peace 2 U.
led - one of the big problems facing the food situation is the genetic manipulation of crops. Seed producers are limiting their product. Large seed companies are buying up small seed companies and shutting them down. With the limit of biodiversity, we could face serious trouble including famine if the limited grain supply were to be destroyed by disease.
Yes and no. One of the features of genmod grain is that it is supposed to be more resistant to disease than wild versions. Although you're right, companies like Monsanto do limit the seed, but I'm not sure you've considered the bright spot to that practice. By not allowing their seeds to germinate, and allow farmers to grow their own seed, they limit the amount of genmod that gets out there in the wild.
Also they're buying up smaller companies and shutting them down, well that could just be because the smaller companies just can't compete. One thing you don't ask yourself is why farmers choose Monsanto over other suppliers? If Monsanto were overly restrictive in their policies or too expensive, don't you think farmers would take their business elsewhere? You're not, as a farmer, forced to buy Monsanto products, so why do farmers continue to do so?
I'm also not so sure that disease would necessarily wipe out our food production. It would make it more expensive, but not wipe it out. Think, oh I don't know, climate controlled caves (natural, or more likely manmade) sealed off to prevent infection, or mass greenhouses or even skyscrapers that do nothing more than produce food.
Energy, of course, is the limiting factor, but if food prices went high enough due to disease to make that sort of thing attractive, it would then mitigate the effects of disease. One thing I never try to do is underestimate the creativity of people in finding solutions to problems.
Army Infantry Mom 2 years ago
Planting your own sounds like a good idea,..saves money, always have something to eat and you know its safe. great hub